2026 World Cup · Win/Draw/Loss Trend Analysis LeBall Live Real-Time

Dynamic Probabilities | Odds Correlations | Historical Data | Marquee Match Insights

Win/Draw/Loss Trend Changes | Knockout Stage Index Fluctuations

*Win rate moving average (Group → Knockout axis)

Draw & away win probability divergence, penalty shootout expectation rising

Current W/D/L Weight : Home Win Index 1.92 → 2.10 (volatility↑) Draw odds concentration 3.20~3.50

⚡ Last 5 high-profile matches: Home win 42% / Draw 34% / Away win 24%Extra time lifts draw index by 12%

Probability Trend Analysis | Future Match Probability Models

Argentina/France/Spain W/D/L probability per round (pre-match models)

Home Win Probability 47% (KO stage avg)

Draw Probability 31% (highest in three editions)

Away Win Probability 22% (affected by top-team home dominance)

Historical Comparison | Last Four World Cups Knockout Phase W/D/L Structure

Year	Home Win Rate (incl. neutral)	Draw Rate	Away Win Rate	Extra Time/Pens %
2018	41%	27%	32%	18%
2022	44%	29%	27%	21%
2026 (Group+KO so far)	46%	31%	23%	25%
2026 KO Stage Trend	47%	33%	20%	28%

📊 Compared to 2022: Draw rate +4 percentage points, extra time frequency increased, reflecting tactical caution and tight high-level clashes.

Odds & Trend Relationship | Key Match Odds Fluctuation & Fund Flow

Argentina vs France final odds: home win opening → closing, draw odds heavily backed

🇦🇷 Argentina vs 🇫🇷 FranceDraw Kelly 0.96 → concentrated interest

🇪🇸 Spain vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EnglandHome win odds down -8% , clear money tilt

⚡ High-profile match pre-match exchange: Draw lay volume reaches 34%Large trades leaning draw + handicap draw

Draw odds turnover share 62% (+14% vs opening)

Comprehensive: Underdog covers increase in heavy handicaps, draw odds protection at decade-high, pointing to more tight contests.

High-Profile Match Trends | Marquee Match Real-Time W/D/L Direction

Fixture	Kickoff	Initial Odds (H/D/A)	Latest Odds	Trend Direction	Popularity Index
🇦🇷 Argentina VS 🇫🇷 France	2026-07-18	2.10 / 3.20 / 3.50	2.25 / 3.10 / 3.30	Draw odds down, away win slightly down	🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
🇪🇸 Spain VS 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	2026-07-17	2.00 / 3.25 / 3.80	1.95 / 3.35 / 3.90	Home win momentum, draw trend strengthening	🔥🔥🔥🔥
🇧🇷 Brazil VS 🇩🇪 Germany (3rd place)	2026-07-19	2.30 / 3.40 / 2.90	2.40 / 3.30 / 2.85	Over + draw tendency rising	🔥🔥🔥
🇵🇹 Portugal VS 🇳🇱 Netherlands (SF qualifier)	2026-07-14	2.20 / 3.10 / 3.40	2.15 / 3.28 / 3.30	Draw odds up, home win heat accumulates	🔥🔥🔥🔥

🇦🇷-🇫🇷 Draw deviation+0.12 → extreme caution

🇪🇸-🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Home win buy volume61% share

⚡ High-profile match over/under correlationOver 2.5 probability breaks 54%

High-profile matches 2nd half goals share 58%

All trends based on LeBall Live real-time W/D/L indices, historical odds movements and head-to-head records. Updated through semi-final stage.